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So Donald Trump dropped some bombs on the Middle East’s most vile regime, and says it completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear ambitions. One hopes he is correct, because Iran has been a menace in the Middle East since 1979. As the Trump administration is prone to fibbing in the extreme, you have to take the President’s claims with a shaker full of salt. The military will conduct a damage assessment, and only then we will know how well it worked.
Republicans are gleeful. They say the President showed STRENGTH, and they believe they can take that to the election in 2026. Except that four opinion polls since the bombing have Trump losing support, not gaining it. So good luck with that.
Democrats were cautious, some despondent. Most avoided commentary on the wisdom of the attack, but dwelt instead on the lack of notification, or any attempt to obtain a constitutionally required Congressional approval. AOC says “impeachment!” And good luck with that.
Politics aside, the more important question is, was it wise? As none of us teach at the Army War College, or write for Foreign Affairs Magazine, the correct answer is, “We don’t know.” But here’s the deal, experts who do teach and write on war and foreign affairs don't don’t know, either, because once you start a war you lose control over what happens next.
Donald Trump compounds the problem because he lives in the moment. It's hard for him to plan ahead, but if he has one it is almost certainly based on wishful thinking. He is incapable of gaming it out, and is already scolding both Israel and Iran for violating their cease fire agreement. Imagine, some foreign leaders just won’t do what they’re told.
There is a saying attributed (falsely) to the French Revolution statesman Charles Talleyrand, “It was worse than a crime. It was a mistake.” In other words, crimes may get you into trouble, but mistakes can kill you. Based on commentary from many experts, the decision was quite probably a good one. Iran is a threat to all of its neighbors, proclaims “Death to America” and means it, lives in a religious stone age, is cruel to its own people, and despite vast oil reserves is an economic mess. Among nations it would be the most dangerous nuclear power.
But when all this is over, next month, next year, next decade, we may wake up to find Iran looks and acts exactly as it does today, possibly worse, possibly with nuclear weapons. It will almost certainly not be a friendly liberal constitutional democracy, as we might wish.
If you're a Trump cheerleader channeling his bravado, be prepared for possible disappointment, to the extent you can experience disappointment in this cruel, lawless President. And if you are a Democrat, don’t be a Peacenik. The world is dangerous, filled with bad actors, the Middle East is combustible. Though some of my fellow Democrats may think so, the United States is not responsible for all of the world’s troubles. But if we can contain some of them, especially nuclear troubles, then military action may be worth the risk.
